The brain trust at flyersrights.org is at it again. This time they are specifically targeting JFK International Airport. Led by the noted realtor and self proclaimed aviation expert Kate Hanni; they have put their full weight behind denying the airlines request for temporary relief from The Airline Passenger Bill of rights Act of 2009.

I predicted here, months ago, that the bill would lead to mass cancelations and ultimately hundreds of thousands, even millions of passengers being adversely affected, vice the 1/100th of a percent of flights stranded, that the bill was designed to prevent. Very few flights have had the long on ground delays this bill addresses. On the 22nd of December 2009 I predicted that future weather events would cause massive cancelations. On the 17th of February 2010 I showed an example. On the 9th of March 2010 the debate ended; the CEO of Continental Airlines in his own words:

Smisek said many passengers on delayed flights “really want to go to LA or Mumbai, but the government by God says, ‘We’re going to fine you $27,500.’ Here’s what we’re going to do: We’re going to cancel the flight.”

Because airlines have cut flights, leaving the remaining ones more crowded, passengers will have fewer chances to rebook on another flight. Passengers, he said, won’t get to their destinations “for maybe days.”

The reality of the situation apparently has not yet reached flyersrights.org; in fact they now seem hell-bent on making the situation worse. A mere 5 days after the CEO of Continental Airlines stated the above, flyersrights.org strongly opposed an exception to 14 C.F.R. §§ 259.4(b)(1) and (b)(2).

The problem: JFK Airport is shutting down one of its major runways for construction. Thus knowing it will cause delays; Delta and JetBlue Airlines asked for relief until the construction is complete. A very reasonable request IMO, in light of the fact that the capacity of the airport will be greatly reduced.

Flyersrights.org, “representing the interests of airline passengers” responded:

“FlyersRights.org strongly opposes DOT’s granting any exemption from this regulation to these or to any other airlines serving JFK.”

Further:

“The DOT Secretary should deny these airline requests out of hand and direct FAA Administrator Babbitt to meet promptly with the airlines and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, JFK’s operator, to require the airlines to realistically schedule airline operations correlated to available JFK runway capacity during this construction period.”

Translation; cancel flights (keep in mind load factors are at historical highs. Airlines especially during summer months are virtually at capacity); so much for that trip to Paris. BTW doesn’t “out of hand” mean without even examining the impact? That would be ironically apropos to this organization.

The following paragraphs are laughable, their total lack of insight and understanding of the industry is eye-watering to me. I suppose you don’t get much Air Transport training in realty school.

“Airline passengers should not have to endure multi-hour delays on JFK’s taxiways because the FAA refuses to manage “flow control” over the ground movements of aircraft scheduled for departure. FlyersRights.org has recommended for years that FAA’s air traffic controllers at congested airports like JFK should be required to prohibit airlines from pushing their aircraft back from the gate when an unreasonably long taxiway delay before takeoff is inevitable. FAA has resisted, not wanting to preclude the airlines from using those taxiways as passenger parking lots.

The exemption-requesting airlines have long known about the approaching need for the Bay Runway to be closed temporarily for reconstruction. They have had many months to develop alternative solutions that wouldn’t make passengers suffer long tarmac delays: e.g., scheduling larger capacity aircraft, and adjusting departure schedules. Instead, they now propose distorting a new DOT regulation that was designed to protect airline passengers during occasional “irregular operations” (such as weather) to insulate themselves from the consequences of their chronic, everyday overscheduling of flights.”

Let’s look at some of Kate’s fixes closely, first:

“FlyersRights.org has recommended for years that FAA’s air traffic controllers at congested airports like JFK should be required to prohibit airlines from pushing their aircraft back from the gate when an unreasonably long taxiway delay before takeoff is inevitable.”

Again, evidence that (apparently) even a basic understanding of the industry is not present over at flyersrights.org. They must assume that every flight has its own gate, do the math. Flights have to come off the gate, because an arriving flight needs it to deplane. What is flyersrights.org’s answer to that? Which group of passengers gets to sit; arriving or departing? The industry has its answer ready; in the face of fines they will cancel the departing unless they get regulatory relief. Continentals CEO could not have been clearer. Let’s keep in mind if the aircraft does not go over the pond; the flight back the next day is also cancelled. A two for one deal; think that happening day in day out until November will adversely affect tourism, the economy, not to mention the airlines based in JFK?

“scheduling larger capacity aircraft,”

The international flights into and out of JFK are already flying the largest aircraft available that the markets will support, Boeing 747, 777, 767 and 757’s; Airbus 380, 340 and 330’s as well. They only have so many, they’re kinda expensive and require crews and mechanics and baggage handlers and….well you get the picture.
Surely our intrepid realtor doesn’t mean the airlines need to fly a 777 from small town USA to JFK. Or is it a case of; the small market passengers don’t deserve to fly around the world by connecting in New York. Not to mention in the case of JetBlue (one of the named airlines) the A-320 (approx 150 seats) is the biggest aircraft they fly.

I could go on but this pains even me. This is the danger of the internet; a small minority representing a fraction of the airline passengers of the world is inflicting damage to the entire system. Construction, like bad weather, happens in this industry. Not every day, but when it does, it will impact the schedule. The airlines now will have no other choice than to cancel flights. Personally, I would rather wait 4 hours on the ramp or taxi way, rather than sit in a hotel for 2 or 3 days.

An old Admiral once told me; “Son, one person pissing down your leg is not a movement.” Sadly, that is no longer true in the age of the internet.

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• Air traffic perfect storm for NYC (cnn.com)

Last week’s winter weather forced the airlines to cancel massive amounts of flights. Was it really the weather? Or was it the work of “Uber-passenger” Kate Hanni and her electronic mob, at flyersrights.org? They have successfully lobbied for DOT rule changes and new federal Laws (Airline Passenger Bill of Rights Act of 2009). The organization surely has impressive aviation credentials in operational analysis and implementation to be able to virtually re-write the FARs. Especially Ms. Kate Hanni, who has given over 800 interviews according to their site, influencing Congressional Leaders like Barbara Boxer and even the international world of aviation.

Imagine how “Wowed” I was, to learn via her website, that dear Kate is a California Realtor, Napa no less. Impressive credentials for someone who is re-writing the FARs on aviation; add to that she has ridden in the back and got stuck during a storm once. Impressive indeed; and now the “press” runs to her door for expert analysis, apparently over 800 times so far.

And the results are in! Rather than risk fines, the airlines have concluded the only fix is to simply cancel entire banks of flights. When a metric tells them that the mandated limit approaches for a flight or bank of flights they just cancel. Ironically, it is much cheaper for the airlines than de-icing, flying half full aircraft (due to people missing their flights) and sitting for hours burning gas. And here’s the best part: because it is weather-, not company-related, they don’t have to provide hotels or food vouchers. Bingo, Jed’s a millionaire!

So bottom line: instead of waiting on the “tarmac”, it is really called the ramp. Normally during a weather event aircraft are stacked on taxiways, but let’s not throw any technical facts into the mix; this is about emotion and revenge! Instead of that ugly wait for hours on the taxiway, passengers will now wait for days, at their own cost, in a hotel. What a great solution from the Boxer/Hanni brain-trust of California!

Let me explain why: if your flight is canceled your seat goes away. It is a perishable service, end of story. The next day’s tickets are already sold – AND load factors are at historic highs. That means, you guessed it, stand-by for the canceled flights’  hundreds of passengers. Let’s look at JetBlue only: last Wednesday, they canceled 387 flights due to the storm. In 2005/2006, they averaged 254 cancels for the entire year, a dramatic change. Let’s now do the math; 387 x 149=57,663 stranded passengers. JetBlue has 250 flights a day in JFK, so the total number probably represents most of their flights in a day. But I feel generous; let’s say only half were canceled: back to math. JetBlue’s load factor is in excess of 80%, but again we will be generous and use 80. That is 120 seats filled on a 149 seat aircraft for 774 flights in a day – 22,446 seats a day to move 57,663 passengers. That would require two and one half days, if all the stars aligned. Obviously it is not linear, load factors are average and JetBlue flies the E-190 as well. This is simply a big picture look at what happens mathematically when flights cancel vice delay.

Passenger advocates say that airlines don’t need to cancel flights to prevent tarmac delays. “This is solvable” without excess cancellations, said Kate Hanni, who founded Flyersrights.org after a flight she was on in 2006 was stranded.

I suppose there are dumber statements out there, but I haven’t seen one for a while, and it shows just how clueless this “Aviation Advocate” actually is, in my opinion. She must assume each and every flight has a dedicated crew, gate and aircraft. Apparently she doesn’t know that aircraft and crew fly multiple flights a day, gates AND “tarmac” space are finite and that FAR’s cause crew to time out when they return to the gate. Thus, if a flight waits for 2 hours 59 minutes, then returns to the gate, the crew day limits are re-calculated. You can bet at the end of the day they will go illegal. OBTW, reserve crews are finite as well.

Perhaps we can get Kate to do the arithmetic for us. Until then, good luck getting anywhere during the next snowstorm. Oh, I almost forgot. I noticed that 3 for 3 of Kate’s advertisers were lawyers on the site. Hmmm, curious. All this to fix a problem that historically affected less than 1/10th of 1% of daily flights. Amazing.