Imagine how “Wowed” I was, to learn via her website, that dear Kate is a California Realtor, Napa no less. Impressive credentials for someone who is re-writing the FARs on aviation; add to that she has ridden in the back and got stuck during a storm once. Impressive indeed; and now the “press” runs to her door for expert analysis, apparently over 800 times so far.

And the results are in! Rather than risk fines, the airlines have concluded the only fix is to simply cancel entire banks of flights. When a metric tells them that the mandated limit approaches for a flight or bank of flights they just cancel. Ironically, it is much cheaper for the airlines than de-icing, flying half full aircraft (due to people missing their flights) and sitting for hours burning gas. And here’s the best part: because it is weather-, not company-related, they don’t have to provide hotels or food vouchers. Bingo, Jed’s a millionaire!

So bottom line: instead of waiting on the “tarmac”, it is really called the ramp. Normally during a weather event aircraft are stacked on taxiways, but let’s not throw any technical facts into the mix; this is about emotion and revenge! Instead of that ugly wait for hours on the taxiway, passengers will now wait for days, at their own cost, in a hotel. What a great solution from the Boxer/Hanni brain-trust of California!

Let me explain why: if your flight is canceled your seat goes away. It is a perishable service, end of story. The next day’s tickets are already sold – AND load factors are at historic highs. That means, you guessed it, stand-by for the canceled flights’  hundreds of passengers. Let’s look at JetBlue only: last Wednesday, they canceled 387 flights due to the storm. In 2005/2006, they averaged 254 cancels for the entire year, a dramatic change. Let’s now do the math; 387 x 149=57,663 stranded passengers. JetBlue has 250 flights a day in JFK, so the total number probably represents most of their flights in a day. But I feel generous; let’s say only half were canceled: back to math. JetBlue’s load factor is in excess of 80%, but again we will be generous and use 80. That is 120 seats filled on a 149 seat aircraft for 774 flights in a day – 22,446 seats a day to move 57,663 passengers. That would require two and one half days, if all the stars aligned. Obviously it is not linear, load factors are average and JetBlue flies the E-190 as well. This is simply a big picture look at what happens mathematically when flights cancel vice delay.

Passenger advocates say that airlines don’t need to cancel flights to prevent tarmac delays. “This is solvable” without excess cancellations, said Kate Hanni, who founded Flyersrights.org after a flight she was on in 2006 was stranded.

I suppose there are dumber statements out there, but I haven’t seen one for a while, and it shows just how clueless this “Aviation Advocate” actually is, in my opinion. She must assume each and every flight has a dedicated crew, gate and aircraft. Apparently she doesn’t know that aircraft and crew fly multiple flights a day, gates AND “tarmac” space are finite and that FAR’s cause crew to time out when they return to the gate. Thus, if a flight waits for 2 hours 59 minutes, then returns to the gate, the crew day limits are re-calculated. You can bet at the end of the day they will go illegal. OBTW, reserve crews are finite as well.

Perhaps we can get Kate to do the arithmetic for us. Until then, good luck getting anywhere during the next snowstorm. Oh, I almost forgot. I noticed that 3 for 3 of Kate’s advertisers were lawyers on the site. Hmmm, curious. All this to fix a problem that historically affected less than 1/10th of 1% of daily flights. Amazing.

“I don’t know what can be more disruptive to people than to be stuck sitting on a plane five, six, seven hours with no explanation,” Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said at a briefing.

Snow and or ice falling might explain it, I’m just saying.  I also know what could be more disruptive; how about not getting to your destination at all!  All those years as an Educator and Congressman obviously prepared Mr. LaHood to lead the largest transportation system in the world.

Here is how it will go: A snow storm sweeps into LaGuardia, O’Hara, Denver or DFW; a line forms for deicing and takeoff.  As the wait hits 3 hours all it will take is a single passenger to demand to get off.  At best that will cause the aircraft to come out of the line and go back to a gate.  This will also require a gate to be available, not likely.  And it will also mean back into the deicing line and then back into the take off line (at the end); for the rest of the passengers it will mean doubling their sit time or more likely, the flight will cancel.  Worst case scenario the entire field will shut down as aircraft jockey to let the one passenger get off one aircraft.  Holdover times on de-icing fluid will expire; crew times will run out, because if you return to the gate you have to refigure crew rest.  In short absolute bedlam; remember it is a DOT rule so the airport will have to comply.

And the discount carriers?  They will be required to supply food after 2 hour delays.  They don’t cater, now what?  Simple, after two hours they will cancel.  If there is a cloud in the sky at any major airport in the future think twice about going; all it will take to cancel your flight is a single disgruntled passenger.  Now imagine at least one passenger on each aircraft; gridlock.

Here is an idea:  a very simple solution; if a delay is expected just have the airlines announce a long sit in line will be likely.  If you don’t want to sit over 3 hours then please don’t board the aircraft.  That way the rest of the thousands of people can be on their way.

Southwest executives recognize that the industry is in the final throws of de-regulation, and that only comprehensive network carriers will ultimately survive. Like Delta and American they are making their end game move.

“The global economy is recovering slowly now. China and other Southeast Asian countries are leading the recovery and the US is expected to start recovery in the second half of 2009, while Europe and Japan are lagging behind. So we expect the air transport industry to post positive growth in 2010,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-Market and Value Analysis Fariba Alamdari predicted at the event (ATWOnline, Sept. 10).

Based on a gradual economic recovery they think that the Airline industry will follow. Peak capacity is not expected to be reached for another 2 to 3 years. Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, South America and Africa are leading the way.

It is apparent by quotes that the old government favored a deal with DAL. DAL recently bought Northwest Airline (NWA); NWA had a large presence at Tokyo’s’ Narita Airport with fifth freedom rights. Fifth freedom rights allow NWA, now DAL, to pick up passengers in Narita and fly them to another country. A deal between DAL and JAL would give them a strangle hold on the Narita hub before the open skies agreement is enacted. This would make the restructuring of JAL much easier and more effective.

No doubt this will be a front burner issue for the new government in Japan. As of yet they have not tipped their hand, except to have run on a platform promising: “greater scrutiny of the use of government funds”.

There are supporters in the Transport Ministry and JAL for both options. Reading between the lines, it seems DAL currently has the edge. Not only because of their larger presence in Japan, but also due to the fact they are the world’s largest airline and are growing their network. AA’s network has shrunk; they are trying to expand their reach via Joint Business Ventures (JBV). As of yet these JBVs have not been approved, and there is resistance in the US Justice Department.

JBVs are “virtual mergers”; they allow airlines to merge without the International ownership issues involved in a standard merger. This will not be a singular event, expect reaction by whoever looses the bid for JAL and other airlines. We are entering into the final phase of deregulation. Domestic carriers will move aggressively to consolidate inside their own borders and then enter into JBVs or expand internationally.

I still can’t understand what the Frontier guys were thinking. This was happening as they ran away from Southwest Airline and into the arms of Republic. Now there are rumors Republic will shut down Mokulele Airline within 3 months. I wish good luck to my friends at Frontier and advise them to update their resume’.

This is a microcosm of the airline industry. Midwest used to fly all first class mainline jets, with superior service and experienced crews. Now they will cram their passengers into smaller all coach aircraft and fly them with less experienced crews being paid half the rates. Feel pampered, feel safer?

If I were running Air Tran I would pounce on this market with their B-717 aircraft and its first class seating. I’d give free upgrades for all corporate passengers and drive home the reality of the “new” Midwest Airline. Ultimately they could get Midwest’s market share without paying a cent.

Here is a novel question; he was held accountable for the out-sourcing fiasco, but was he responsible for it?

Let’s take a look: He took over the Commercial Airplane Division and it’s already troubled 787 Dreamliner in September 2006. Before that he was VP of Sales, prior to that he was head of the broad band connectivity unit Connexion, and before that he was the Chief Financial Officer.

Sales, IT, and Finance; doesn’t look to me like he made the decision to out-source the production of the 787. Looks to me like he was, “thrown under the bus,” after 38 years of loyal service. Dennis Muilenburg will take over the troubled division, good luck!

It reminds me of an old Navy Sea Story:

Back in the 1960s, a Skipper was relieved of Command because he couldn’t keep the tired, old, WWII Destroyer he captained in formation. When the new Commanding Officer showed up he handed him three letters that were numbered sequentially. He told the new Skipper; “When the Admiral asks why you can’t keep up with the task force, open letter number one. When he sends another message asking about the inability of your ship to maintain formation, open number two, same with the third.”

A few weeks later, sure enough the old Destroyer fell behind after one of its boilers blew out. The new Skipper opened letter one in preparation of the Admirals inquiry. It contained a single sentence;
“Blame your predecessor.”
Again, within weeks, he was forced to open another letter;
“Blame the old equipment.”
Just a few days later the old Tin Can went dead in the water. The new Skipper sprinted for his quarters as the Admirals high-pitched and excited voice came over the ship to ship frequency. His quarters, like all ships captains, were adjacent to the bridge. As he tore open the third letter, he could still hear the Admiral demanding an answer for his ships incompetence. Inside the envelope he found a single sentence yet again;
“Prepare three letters.”

The airline (WestJet) said the plan “aligns with the current and planned launch of interline and codeshare partnerships, the continued rapid growth of its WestJet Vacations business and. . .plans to grow its share of the business traveler market.”

All the talking points are growth related and yet the plan calls for aircraft deferrals. I suspect the story within the story, is the mention of codeshare. SWA had initially sought a codeshare with WestJet; apparently that is no longer in the cards. Scope is why the SWA pilots union (SWAPA) voted down the last contract proposal, and this is a result of that vote. SWA CEO Gary Kelly obviously decided a fight with the pilots was not worth the incremental short term savings. Maybe he has been watching the outsourcing fiasco at Boeing.

Fellow SWAPA pilots,

We are very disappointed the FAPA pilots decided to turn down our SLI offer, and equally as disappointed in the Company’s loss in the auction process. It appears that in addition to the labor clause, Republic significantly increased their monetary offer, causing Frontier to go with Republic. Our attorneys in Washington D.C. describe a bankruptcy auction like a “Turkish Rug Bizarre” and there were many mitigating factors which influenced the final decision. Certainly Republic’s notable increase in their monetary offer had significant weight on the final decision.

To outline our last offer to the FAPA pilots, we had offered the following:
1. Adding FAPA pilots to the bottom of our Master Seniority List
2. Snap up to the greater of pre-concessionary FAPA pay rates (10% increase) or SWAPA F/O pay rates
3. Indexing pay raises to our Section 6 increases through the fence period
4. Denver Domicile protections for 3 years after the fence agreement

Their counter offer was essentially numbers 2 through 4 plus relative seniority (top to bottom of our list) less a factor of ‘X’ which they never defined – plus the following:
1. 100% Denver Domicile protection forever
2. $3000/month furlough pay for all of their furloughees forever
3. Health benefits for all furloughees forever (SWAPA values a family of four cobra rate at $1,000/month)

They made no concessions from their offer.

Considering the looming Company-induced deadline of midnight and the vast differences in offers, very little movement was made on either side. Without more time, our differences were just too vast. Our assessment of their offer was essentially “You want all your seniority at our pay rates and benefits.” This wouldn’t be a win for our pilot group. As such, we left our last offer on the table. At the 11th hour, the Company told us that they would go ahead with the auction and leave the labor contingency in place.
They weren’t confident of their success at the auction considering the “negative value” the labor contingency was causing at the legal level, but SWA was committed to our pilots’ best interests.

SWAPA did not hear from FAPA at all on Thursday except that they acknowledged some of our communication we forwarded to them. SWAPA made multiple attempts to contact FAPA on Thursday, but FAPA did not return messages or make any further attempt to bargain. Thursday night, the bid was awarded to Republic.

Obviously this is the point of view from SWAPA only. I invite any FAPA member to post theirs. I still can’t stop wondering what FAPA was thinking. Republic just finished virtually destroying Midwest Airline. All of their mainline jets are gone and the entire airline has been outsourced. THAT ALONE would have been my first clue. I hope they fare better, I’m afraid they won’t.